Thursday, April 2, 2015

Gasoline Prices

The average price of gasoline around the world is 1.07 U.S. Dollar per liter. However, there is substantial difference in these prices among countries. As a general rule, richer countries have higher prices while poorer countries and the countries that produce and export oil have significantly lower prices. One notable exception is the U.S. which is an economically advanced country but has low gas prices. The differences in prices across countries are due to the various taxes and subsidies for gasoline.
All countries have access to the same petroleum prices of international markets but then decide to impose different taxes. As a result, the retail price of gasoline is different. In some cases, like Venezuela, the government even subsidizes gasoline and therefore people there pay close to nothing to drive their cars.

Venezuela

Venezuela is another one of the worlds large exporters of oil. But due to economic mismanagement the government was already having a hard time paying its way and now they are looking at a recession. The country has some of the cheapest petrol prices in the world and the President has ruled out raising the prices and subsidy cuts.

Europe and Asia

Europe is welcoming the lower gas and oil prices as of now. A 10% fall in prices should lead to a .1% increase in economic output. Consumers will enjoy the low gas prices for a short period of time however after production slows down due to low revenue that gas prices will shoot up again. China, which is set to become the largest net importer of oil, should gain from falling prices. However, lower oil prices won't fully offset the far wider effects of a slowing economy. Further, in Japan the lower gas and oil prices are contributing to the inflation crisis.

US: New Player

U.S. oil production is the highest it has been in 30 years. It has been this growth in US energy production, where gas and oil is extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or fracking, that has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices. Even though many US shale oil producers have far higher costs than conventional rivals, many need to carry on pumping to generate at least some revenue stream to pay off debts and other costs.

Opec: The Great Balancing Act

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Emirates have built large foreign currency reserves, which means they could run several deficits if necessary. Members such as Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria have greater domestic budget demands because of their large population in relation to the oil revenues. They are also under more pressure due to US production increase. The war in Syria and Iraq has also seen Isis, or Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia: Price and Market Share

Saudi Arabia is the World's lead oil exporter. Meaning they could significantly support global gas and oil prices by reducing production. However, there is little sign that they will do so.
There are probably a couple reasons why they wouldn't want to cut back on production, one, that they are trying to instill some discipline in the other Opec oil producers and the other would be to pressure the US's new, flourishing industry. Although Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time. However, in the 1980s when the country cut oil production the increase prices the Saudi economy suffered.

Russia: World Leader

Russia is one the world's largest oil producers, 70% of its export incomes relies on just oil and gas. Which explains why there was a recent 17% interest rate hike. Russia is losing $2 billion in revenues for every dollar the oil prices drop. The World Bank estimates that Russia's economy would shrink by 0.7% in the next year if the price of oil does not rise. However, Russia is not cutting production to shore up oil prices. "If we cut, the importer countries will increase their production and this will mean a loss of our niche market," said Energy Minister Alexander Novak. Falling oil prices, coupled with
western sanctions over Russia's support for separatists in eastern Ukraine have hit the country hard.

Because of the twin impact of falling oil prices and sanctions, he said the government had had to cut spending. "We had to abandon a number of programmes and make certain sacrifices."
Russia's interest rate rise may also bring its own problems, as high rates can choke economic growth by making it harder for businesses to borrow and spend.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29643612

Myanmar


Myanmar is one of the largest exporters of natural gas in their region. Having 70% of their output in Thailand. It is also the country's largest export commodity. Myanmar adjusts its gas prices on a quarterly basis, using regional prices as a reference. The price of gas exports was $11.7321 per MMBTU in the third quarter, dropping to $11.6516 in last quarter of 2014, according to data from the Ministry of Energy’s Energy Planning Department. It has now dropped to $10.90 and likely to drop further, a MOGE official said.
These prices include transportation cost. Wellhead prices do not account for transportation costs. The natural gas industry is the main source of revenue of foreign currency. The decline in gas prices will destroy the economy.


http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/business/13839-grey-skies-for-natural-gas-prices.html

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Winners and losers

As a consumer one would enjoy the decrease in gas prices. However, bigger issues can arise over fluctuating gas prices. Falling gas prices mean lower earnings for the producers. When producers aren't in the black the consequence falls where they spend their money... the employees. In the event of oil and gas price decreases drilling companies will stop hiring and start firing employees.

Another point to consider is the issues that cause the fluctuating gas price. The world is competing for the natural gas market... this is due to high production rates. Now the countries who used to import oil have enough natural gas to even export. This leads to better prices per barrel which throws the balance of the market into a spiral.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2015/01/09/falling-oil-prices-impact-economy-and-the-keystone-pipeline/2/